Your Buying Guide For When Watch Prices Begin To Fluctuate

Christmas is coming early—the 90-day pause in tariffs has sparked a surge in Swiss watch purchases, as collectors rush to buy before the potential return of 31% tariffs on European goods.

When President Trump imposed global tariffs, including a 31% tariff on European goods, it became more expensive to buy high-end Swiss watches in the US than to fly business class to Switzerland and shop at a VIP boutique. US consumers have been N Sync (pun intended) in their frenzied response: buy, buy, buy! As a matter of fact, Watches of Switzerland just reported a 14% year-over-year sales increase in the US, and Richemont posted 16% growth in the region.

But if you’re feeling the urge to stock up, pause for a moment.

Here’s why: It’s unlikely that US tariffs on European goods will return to that punishing 31% rate. In April 2025, Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter met with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Geneva, resulting in an agreement to accelerate trade talks.

Even if tariffs were to return, it makes more business sense for luxury brands to absorb them under global overheads than to price US consumers out of the market. So far, the US and Switzerland have agreed to cap tariffs at a reasonable 10%. Switzerland is one of 15 countries selected for “privileged” negotiations with the US. When the 90-day pause ends in early July 2025, don’t be surprised if tariffs on Swiss goods don’t return at all.

Regardless of how negotiations unfold, one thing is certain: overconsumption leads to saturation, and saturation leads to falling prices. Here’s your guide to preparing for the potential price dips:

Know Your Targets Now

Create a shortlist of watches you genuinely desire—not just those that are discounted. If you prefer acquisitions that might appreciate, then prioritize iconic models, discontinued references, and underappreciated gems. And use tools like Chrono24’s tracker or WatchCharts to monitor price trends.

Keep Cash Ready

If you suspect a market correction, hold back from overextending. Liquidation favors those who can act fast, so cash buyers often get the best deals.

Don’t Buy Just Because It’s Cheap

Discount ≠ value. Would you want the watch at full retail? Don’t “pile up” mid-tier pieces when you could be saving for a grail.

Monitor the Gray Market and Authorized Dealers

Gray dealers may react faster to price shifts. Set alerts on platforms like Jomashop, WatchBox, and eBay. Authorized dealers might offer bundle deals or VIP access to higher-end models if they need to clear inventory.

Be Cautious About Post-Liquidation Quality

Check warranty status, return policies, and service records (if pre-owned). Fire-sale pieces may lack box/papers or show wear-and-tear. It’s difficult to ensure that not a single aspect of a high-end watch has been altered (which dents its value), so it’s best to consult an expert.

Prepare to Trade or Sell

You may want to rotate your collection when better pieces become available. Clean, service, and get certification for your current watches to ensure faster and more profitable sales.

Watch the Global Impact

If US prices drop, overseas dealers may follow suit, especially in Singapore, the UK, or Japan. You might find better deals abroad, especially with favorable currency exchange rates.

Think Long-Term

A temporary dip in Swiss watch prices could spook speculators, but long-term collectors benefit by focusing on: Movement quality, historical relevance, brand strength, and rarity and condition.

Our Secondary Market Predictions

Just like in the post-crypto boom and the spending slump of 2023–2024, the usual suspects—Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Patek Philippe — will likely enter the secondary market in droves.

Brands like Cartier, Grand Seiko, and Jaeger-LeCoultre, which are currently enjoying high sales and strong brand equity, may also be heavily represented in this round of liquidation.

Keep your eyes open for rare independent haute horlogerie pieces from the likes of Philippe Dufour, Rexhep Rexhepi/Akrivia (touted as “the next Dufour”), De Bethune, Grönefeld, etc that might surface.

If you spot a Greubel Forsey, consider grabbing it, because this brand has been soaring in exclusivity and esteem. Even Arnold & Son might trend upward because super collector Ed Sheeran just threw his weight behind the brand—he wore his Arnold & Son Constant Force Tourbillon 11 to his Time magazine photo shoot in April.

Rolex has long enjoyed the strongest resale value in the industry. A price correction might make models like the Submariner or Datejust more accessible. As you might be aware, highly sought-after models like the GMT-Master II “Pepsi” and “Batman,” and Daytona variants offer very strong value retention. Many Explorer I and II models are already available on the secondary market at irresistible prices. Want a better overview of which models are appreciating? An array of price monitoring websites is now available at our fingertips, so there’s no reason not to do your due diligence while negotiating.

While “hype brand” may be a disparaging term, the fact remains that Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet usually face saturation during a liquidation wave.

For Patek Philippe, if you’re shopping for a Nautilus or Aquanaut, these flood secondary marketplaces during times of mass liquidation. Use platforms like WatchCharts and Chrono24 to compare listings and spot undervalued models.

With Audemars Piguet, vintage Royal Oak references are especially interesting. You might have heard that A and B series pieces tend to outperform C and D series models in the gray market.

A and B series: Often have the “AP” logo at 6 o’clock or just the word “SWISS.” Made in the mid-1970s with thinner hands and indices. Fewer than 2,000 A series units exist.

C and D series: Made in the late 1970s to early 1980s. Usually feature the “AP” at 12 o’clock, sometimes with words like “Automatic” and “SWISS MADE.” These have thicker hands, indices, and bracelets.

So, if you’re keeping an eye out for bargains—or hoping to spot future grails—we hope this guide helps. And if you simply want to treat yourself without fretting over resale, that’s just as valid. Buy what you love.

This information is for general guidance only and should not be construed as financial advice.